A recent headline from Wyoming Public Media reads:

Heat waves will hit the West much more often 30 years from now, analysis shows.

A while back I was talking to Western meteorologist Don Day, of Day Weather. and I mentioned the 10 day forecast.

He quickly interrupted me by saying, "Slap on the wrist for taking the 10 day forecast seriously."

He was right. Meteorologist have a hard time even getting the 5 day forecast right, much less a 10 day forecast.

My first question for Wyoming Public Media, and the researcher they are quoting, is, if we can't get the forecast right 10 days out, how can we hope to nail a 30 year forecast?

Lets take a look at what Wyoming Public Media posted, quitting a researcher.

Neverminded the comedy end times weather forecast below. Just skip that video.

New research suggests that as the prevalence of extreme heat events spike over the next 30 years, the odds of heat waves hitting the West Coast and Mountain West will be higher than in most of the rest of the country.

That's one of the findings in a report published this week by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group that analyzes climate risk in the U.S. The group modeled the frequency and duration of hazardous heat events three decades from now, including localized projections. (WPM).

Back to meteorologist Don Day. He's been tracking La Nina & El Nino trends in the pacific. Basically the temperature of the pacific just below the equator has everything to do with how much drought or rain we get here in the Western states.

READ: 50 Years Of Failed Climate Predictions. New York Post.

attachment-Water Termpratures oisst

Models showed that La Nina, colder water, was supposed to end last year and the pacific would return to hotter water, El Nino, last year.

According to Don Day, that never happened.

Those models were complete failures.

The 2022 model, which he holds out cautious hope for, is below.

attachment-ENSO predictions 2022

Many other future predicting models have also been complete failures.

We were told to expect more frequent and stronger hurricanes and tornadoes. But that trend turns out to actually be quite the opposite. In fact the actual data shows that, over the past few decades, we have had fewer hurricanes and they have been weaker. Data also shows the same for tornadoes. 

Having said all of that lets keep in mind that the climate is always changings, and not in a way that we always want.

Wyoming has been a swamp, a sandy desert like Iraq, and under a mile of ice on several occasions.

So - change is coming. That much is certain.

But what kind of change is still out of our ability to predict. Scientist are trying to learn why these changes happen so they can predict what will happen.

But there are far too many unknowns at this point to make accurate predictions.

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